A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
